New Data Prompts Freddie Mac to Upgrade Their Forecast

Freddie Mac's May Forecast continues to look for a downward trending interest on the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage.  The company's economists are project an average rate of 4.3 percent this year with a small increase to 4.5 percent in 2020.  Coupled with a strong labor market, low unemployment, and "modest" wage growth, this should mean a steadily growing housing market this year.  The forecast is for total housing sales, both new and existing, to slightly best the 2018 number of 5.96 million units, rising to 5.98 million.  Existing home sales will account for 5.35 million of the total and new home sales for 630,000 units.  Sales in 2020 are expected to be even better, at 6.14 million overall.

Low Rates Stabilize Refinancing Share of Originations

Refinancing held on to a 35 percent share of mortgage originations in April according to the Origination Insight Report from Ellie Mae as the 30-year note rate dropped for the fourth consecutive month.  The rate was at its highest so far at 5.01 percent in January.  The April average was 4.61 percent. The share of refinancing was little changed from March for any of the loan types and ranged from 38 percent for conventional loans to 23 percent for those backed by FHA. The time to close loans continues to shrink, dropping two days to 40.  Time to close a refinance was 33 days, down from 34 in March and 43 compared to 45 for purchase loans.

MBA Betting on New Home Sales Surge

Applications for new home purchases jumped 15.6 percent in April compared to a year ago and were 3.0 percent higher than in March.  The Mortgage Bankers Association said these non-seasonally adjusted numbers indicate there will be a strong increase in new home sales for the month. "There was a healthy increase in new home purchase activity in April, boosted by the strong economic and employment conditions seen in the first quarter of 2019," said Joel Kan, MBA's Associate Vice President of Economic and Industry Forecasting. "Applications for new home purchases increased, as did our estimate for new home sales..."