Delinquencies Continue to Decline but Forbearances Still a Concern

The national delinquency rate has fallen below 4.0 percent for the first time since COVID-19 started messing up the world. Black Knight, in its "first look" at September's mortgage performance data, says the rate in September, 3.91 percent, represents a reduction of more than 41 percent from September of 2020 and is 2.25 percent below the August level. Delinquencies have moved lower in 14 of the last 17 months. There were 2.068 million loans that were 30 or more days past due in September, not including loans in foreclosure. This is down 54,000 from the prior month and 1.474 million fewer past due loans than the prior September.

Big Jump in Home Sales--Impressive Considering The Lack of Supply

Existing home sales resumed an upward trajectory in September after dipping 2.0 percent in August. The National Association of Realtors® (NAR) said sales of pre-owned single-family houses, townhouses, condominiums, and cooperative apartments rose 7.0 percent in September, although this still left them 2.3 percent behind the pace in September 2020. Sales were at a seasonally adjusted annual level of 6 .29 million units, compared to 5.88 million the previous month and 6.44 million a year earlier.  

Analysts polled by both Econoday and Trading Economics had expected sales to rise but undershot with consensus estimates of 6.03 million and 6.09 million units, respectively.

The rate of single-family home sales rose by 400,000 month-over-month, a 7.7 percent increase, to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.59 million, but this was down 3.1 percent from sales the prior September. Existing condominium and co-op sales were recorded at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 700,000 units, up 1.4 percent from 690,000 in August and 4.5 percent growth from one year ago.

New Home Purchase Applications Fall as Construction Costs Rise

The volume of applications for mortgages to purchase newly constructed homes plunged in September, falling 16.2 percent from the September 2020 level according to the Mortgage Bankers Association's (MBA's) Builder Application Survey (BAS.) Compared to August the volume of applications was down 4.0 percent. These changes are not seasonally adjusted. Based on the volume of applications and on assumptions regarding market coverage and other data, MBA estimates new single-family home sales were running at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 843,000 units in September, a 3.5 percent decline from the August pace of 874,000 units. On an unadjusted basis, an estimated 66,000 newly constructed homes were sold during the month, down 7.0 percent from the estimate of 71,000 sales in August.